It’s summer time! Across the nation thousands of recent high school graduates are enjoying their last summer before their first college semester. They are submitting deposits, selecting courses, packing, and anxiously awaiting their first day. However, a large portion of students from low-income communities will have a very different summer experience. Despite being college eligible and in some cases even enrolled, these students will not attend in the fall and will instead “melt” away during the summer.
This is called “summer melt”. Nationally about 10 to 20 percent of college eligible students melt away, most of which are low-income minority students planning to enroll in community college. In the Southwest district that includes Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico, 44 percent of students melt away. The melt was 19 percent for four-year institutions and 37 percent for community colleges in 2011. The lower a student’s income, the more likely they are to experience summer melt because they lack the necessary resources and support. This means that we are losing future Latino leaders and innovators over the summer. We cannot allow this to happen. A higher education is not just a pathway to opportunity, it is a prerequisite.
Source: US Department of Education: https://www.ed.gov/content/summer-melt
SDP Summer Melt Handbook: A Guide to Investigating and Responding to Summer Melt, Harvard University https://sdp.cepr.harvard.edu/files/cepr-sdp/files/sdp-summer-melt-handbook.pdf
Avery, C., Howell, J. S., & Page, L. (2014). A Review of the Role of College Counseling, Coaching, and Mentoring on Students' Postsecondary Outcomes. Research Brief. College Board. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED556468
Basko, A. (2022). How to solve the mystery of Summer Melt. Chronicle of Higher Education. Retrieved from https://www.chronicle.com/article/how-to-solve-the-mystery-of-summer-melt
Castleman, B. L., & Page, L. C. (2014). A trickle or a torrent? Understanding the extent of summer “melt” among college intending high school graduates. Social Science Quarterly, 95, 202-220. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26612158#metadata_info_tab_contents
Castleman, B. L., Page, L. C., & Schooley, K. (2014). The forgotten summer: Does the offer of college counseling after high school mitigate summer melt among college‐intending, low‐income high school graduates? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 33(2), 320-344, https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1027721
Castleman, B. L., & Page, L. C. (2013). The not‐so‐lazy days of summer: Experimental interventions to increase college entry among low‐income high school graduates. New directions for youth development, 2013(140), 77-97, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24474259/
Castleman, B. L., & Page, L. C. (2015). Summer nudging: Can personalized text messages and peer mentor outreach increase college going among low-income high school graduates? Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 115, 144-160, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167268114003217
Cost, emotional stress leading to enrollment challenges at colleges, study finds | EdSource, https://edsource.org/2022/cost-emotional-stress-leading-to-enrollment-challenges-at-colleges-study-finds/670739
#DontMeltNC: Ultimate Guide to Summer Melt | Carolina College Advising Corps (unc.edu), https://carolinacollegeadvisingcorps.unc.edu/dontmeltnc-ultimate-guide-to-summer-melt/
EAB Targeted Yield-Performance Turnarounds White Paper. Retrieved from
https://eab.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/PDF-EMS-Targeted-Yield-Performance-Turnarounds-White-Paper.pdf
Emerson, J (2022) Top Tips for College Counselors on Beating Summer Melt, University of South Florida
https://admissions.usf.edu/blog/top-tips-for-college-counselors-on-beating-summer-melt
Inside Track (2022) East Carolina University Student Journey Map. Consultant Report, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC. Retrieved from https://pasc.ecu.edu/wp-content/pv-uploads/sites/283/2022/09/ECU-Student-Journey-Map-June-2022.pdf
National College Attainment Network, Summer Melt Resources. Retrieved from https://www.ncan.org/page/summer_melt_resources
Robinson, K. J., & Roksa, J. (2016). Counselors, information, and high school college-going culture: Inequalities in the college application process. Research in Higher Education, 57(7), 845-868. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1115787
Oster, M. (2021). College Dreams Dissolved. https://publications.iowa.gov/35085/
Owen, L., Poynton, T. A., & Moore, R. (2020). Student preferences for college and career information. Journal of College Access, 5(1), 7.
Page, L. C., & Gehlbach, H. (2017). How an artificially intelligent virtual assistant helps students navigate the road to college. AERA Open, 3(4), 2332858417749220, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2332858417749220
Sanchez, I. M. (2021). Schools Can Stop Summer Melt: Lessons Learned from the Wisconsin Text Steps Project. National College Attainment Network. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1242587
“Summer melt” was bad during the pandemic, experts fear it could get worse (hechingerreport.org), https://hechingerreport.org/counselors-and-colleges-struggle-through-the-summer-to-make-sure-students-show-up/
Stopping Summer Melt Starts in the Spring, Monday, April 5, 2021, Posted by: Ainsley Ash, Communications Intern, National College Attainment Network, https://www.ncan.org/news/559403/Stopping-Summer-Melt-Starts-in-the-Spring.htm
Tackett, Wendy L.; Pasatta, Kelley; and Pauken, Evan (2018). "Lessons Learned from a Summer Melt Prevention Program," Journal of College Access: Vol. 4: Iss. 1, Article 5. Retrieved from https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1182300
Taylor, Z. W. (2020). Optimizing Away Summer Melt: How Search Engine Optimization May Reduce Summer Melt at Highly Ranked US Institutions of Higher Education. Forthcoming in Strategic Enrollment Management Quarterly, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3513032
Wang, H., Zhou, Y., and King, B. (2021). College Choice in the Middle of a Pandemic – a Study of Summer Melt. Paper presented at the 2021 Student Success Conference, online. Retrieved from https://ipar.ecu.edu/wp-content/pv-uploads/sites/130/2019/10/College-Choice-in-the-Middle-of-a-Pandemic-a-Study-of-Summer-Melt.pdf
Wang, H. & Zhou, Y. (2020). An Analysis of ECU’s Accepted Students: Who joined the Pirate Nation? Who didn’t and where did they go? Paper presented at the 2020 Student Success Conference, Greenville, NC. Retrieved from https://ipar.ecu.edu/wp-content/pv-uploads/sites/130/2019/10/An-Analysis-of-ECUs-Accepted-Students.pdf
What the Research Says About Summer Melt, educationnorthwest, https://educationnorthwest.org/resources/what-research-says-about-summer-melt
Castleman, B. L., & Page, L. C. (2014). Summer melt: Supporting low-income students through the transition to college. Harvard Education Press. Book: https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED568799, Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/Summer-Melt-Supporting-Low-Income-Transition/dp/1612507417, Harvard Education Press: https://www.hepg.org/hep-home/books/summer-melt
College Bound? Avoid Summer Melt!, EducationQuest, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9dv84VvNcw
I'm First! Summer Melt Video Series Introduction, I'm First, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0P537oX7rA
Stopping Summer Melt, Tennessee SCORE, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7F6t0_RsjJQ
Summer Melt Prevention: How Programs and Colleges Can Work Together, CaStudentAid, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H7VSCOWvmQ
What's 'summer melt,' and how can you avoid it?, Spokane Public Schools, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QMNbsrgAII
What is summer melt? EdNC Explains, EducationNC, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV-P_lxbRlE
These papers were sourced and synthesized using Consensus, an AI-powered search engine for research. Try it at https://consensus.app
Summer Melt in College Students: Causes, Impact, and Interventions
Summer melt refers to the phenomenon where high school graduates who intend to enroll in college fail to matriculate in the fall. This issue disproportionately affects low-income, first-generation, and underrepresented minority students, contributing to persistent gaps in college attainment.
Prevalence and Risk Factors
Summer melt rates range widely, from 8% to 44%, with the highest rates among low-income and minority students (Castleman & Page, 2014; Sutton, 2015; Rall, 2016). Key risk factors include lack of access to summer counseling, incomplete financial aid processes (such as FAFSA verification), uncertainty about college plans, and limited support networks. Students with lower school engagement, higher absenteeism, or less confidence in their college choice are especially vulnerable (Miller et al., 2024; Castleman & Page, 2014; Rall, 2016).
Table: Key Risk Factors for Summer Melt
|
Risk Factor |
Description |
Citations |
|
Low-income/First-generation |
Higher rates of melt due to fewer resources |
(Miller et al., 2024; Castleman & Page, 2014; Liu et al., 2024; Enos, 2019) |
|
Incomplete financial aid |
FAFSA issues, verification delays |
(Miller et al., 2024; Nurshatayeva et al., 2021; Castleman et al., 2012) |
|
Lack of summer support |
Limited access to counselors post-graduation |
(Miller et al., 2024; Castleman et al., 2014; Castleman & Page, 2015; Liu et al., 2024) |
|
Uncertainty/Anxiety |
Doubts about readiness or fit |
(Miller et al., 2024; Rall, 2016) |
Figure 1: Summary of main risk factors for summer melt.
Effective Interventions
Research shows that targeted summer interventions can significantly reduce summer melt. High-touch counseling, peer mentoring, and low-cost behavioral nudges (like personalized text messages) have all been effective, especially for low-income and first-generation students (Castleman et al., 2014; Castleman & Page, 2015; Liu et al., 2024; Nurshatayeva et al., 2021; Castleman et al., 2012). AI chatbots and digital outreach also show promise in helping students complete enrollment tasks and financial aid processes (Nurshatayeva et al., 2021). The most successful programs provide proactive, personalized support during the summer transition (Castleman et al., 2014; Castleman & Page, 2015; Liu et al., 2024; Nurshatayeva et al., 2021; Castleman et al., 2012).
Research Evolution and Key Papers
|
Subtopic |
Key Papers/Citations |
|
Prevalence and risk factors |
(Miller et al., 2024; Castleman & Page, 2014; Rall, 2016) |
|
Counseling and peer mentoring |
(Castleman et al., 2014; Castleman & Page, 2015; Liu et al., 2024; Castleman et al., 2012) |
|
Digital/text interventions |
(Castleman & Page, 2015; Nurshatayeva et al., 2021) |
|
Institutional strategies |
(Briggs, 2021; Taylor, 2020; Basu et al., 2022) |
Summary
Summer melt is a significant barrier to college enrollment, especially for disadvantaged students. Evidence-based interventions—such as summer counseling, peer mentoring, and digital nudges—can meaningfully reduce melt and support students’ successful transition to college. Early identification of at-risk students and proactive, personalized support are key to closing enrollment gaps.
These papers were sourced and synthesized using Consensus, an AI-powered search engine for research. Try it at https://consensus.app
References
Miller, C., Phillips, M., & Ahearn, C. (2024). Leaks in the College Access Pipeline: Examining Summer Melt in a Large Urban School District. AERA Open, 10. https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584241278314
Castleman, B., Page, L., & Schooley, K. (2014). The Forgotten Summer: Does the Offer of College Counseling After High School Mitigate Summer Melt Among College-Intending, Low-Income High School Graduates?. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 33, 320-344. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21743
Castleman, B., & Page, L. (2014). A Trickle or a Torrent? Understanding the Extent of Summer “Melt” Among College‐Intending High School Graduates. Social Science Quarterly, 95, 202-220. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12032
Castleman, B., & Page, L. (2015). Summer nudging: Can personalized text messages and peer mentor outreach increase college going among low-income high school graduates?. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 115, 144-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2014.12.008
Liu, V., Haralampoudis, A., & Polon, I. (2024). Combating Summer Melt: The Impact of Near-Peer Mentor Matriculation Program in New York City. Research in Higher Education. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-023-09773-4
Arnold, K., Chewning, A., Castleman, B., & Page, L. (2015). Advisor and Student Experiences of Summer Support for College-intending, Low-income High School Graduates. **, 1, 3.
Naranjo, M., Pang, V., & Alvarado, J. (2015). Summer melts immigrant students’ college plans. Phi Delta Kappan, 97, 38 - 41. https://doi.org/10.1177/0031721715619917
Enos, G. (2019). Researcher sheds light on combating summer melt. Enrollment Management Report. https://doi.org/10.1002/emt.30578
Nurshatayeva, A., Page, L., White, C., & Gehlbach, H. (2021). Are Artificially Intelligent Conversational Chatbots Uniformly Effective in Reducing Summer Melt? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial. Research in Higher Education, 62, 392 - 402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-021-09633-z
Castleman, B., Arnold, K., & Wartman, K. (2012). Stemming the Tide of Summer Melt: An Experimental Study of the Effects of Post-High School Summer Intervention on Low-Income Students’ College Enrollment. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, 5, 1 - 17. https://doi.org/10.1080/19345747.2011.618214
Briggs, K. (2021). Tackling summer melt head on. **. https://doi.org/10.17760/d20412903
Hilton, W. (2018). Advance planning, updated strategies can help prevent summer melt. Student Affairs Today, 20, 1-3. https://doi.org/10.1002/say.30419
Taylor, Z. (2020). Optimizing Away Summer Melt: How Search Engine Optimization May Reduce Summer Melt at Highly Ranked U.S. Institutions of Higher Education. Educational Psychology & Cognition eJournal.
Castleman, B., Owen, L., & Page, L. (2015). Reprint of “Stay late or start early? Experimental evidence on the benefits of college matriculation support from high schools versus colleges”. Economics of Education Review, 51, 113-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2016.03.011
Basu, T., Buckmire, R., & Tweneboah, O. (2022). An Application of Machine Learning to College Admissions: The Summer Melt Problem. Journal of Machine Learning for Modeling and Computing. https://doi.org/10.1615/jmachlearnmodelcomput.2022046289
Handel, S. (2015). Chilling the Melt. College and University, 90, 64.
Li, H., Schnieders, J., & Bobek, B. (2019). Theme Analyses for Open-Ended Survey Responses in Education Research on Summer Melt Phenomenon. **, 128-140. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33232-7_11
Sutton, H. (2015). Discourage summer melt by engaging students with digital strategies. Enrollment Management Report, 19, 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1002/emt.30071
Rall, R. (2016). Forgotten Students in a Transitional Summer: Low-Income Racial/Ethnic Minority Students Experience the Summer Melt. Journal of Negro Education, 85, 462 - 479. https://doi.org/10.7709/jnegroeducation.85.4.0462
Persson, P., & Persson, P. (2012). Onset and end of the summer melt season over sea ice: thermal structure and surface energy perspective from SHEBA. Climate Dynamics, 39, 1349-1371. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1196-9
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